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When Does Family Size Matter for Children’s Education? Causal Evidence from Latin America

We examine the relationship between family size and children’s human capital, commonly known as the quantity–quality trade-off in Latin America. Despite historically high fertility rates and a rapid convergence toward levels observed in high-income countries, evidence on this trade-off in the region remains limited. Using census data from five countries and a twin instrumental variable strategy, we estimate the causal effect of family size on educational outcomes. We document a trade-off in households with three or more children: an additional sibling increases the likelihood of falling behind in school, reduces primary school completion, and lowers total years of schooling. The magnitude of the trade-off is related to tighter financial constraints, more traditional gender norms, and insufficient local school supply. Identifying the contexts in which these trade-offs arise is essential for understanding how fertility patterns shape gaps in human capital accumulation and for informing policies aimed at narrowing intergenerational disparities.

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Familia | Niñez | Cuidado infantil | Trabajo y protección social | Investigación socioeconómica | Desarrollo social

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América Latina y el Caribe

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https://scioteca.caf.com/handle/123456789/2598

Date

2026-03-02

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6.1 Documentos de trabajo en investigación socioeconómica

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Except where otherwised noted, this item's license is described as CC-BY-NC-ND
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When Does Family Size Matter for Children's Education. Evidence from Latin America.pdf (995.53 KB)

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