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Automation and the Margins of Firm and Worker Adjustment in Argentina

We examine how automation reshapes firm labor demand and incumbent-worker trajectories in Argentina over 2007–2022. We link customs records on automation-capital imports to administrative employer–employee and simplified self-employment tax data, identify adoption as discrete import spikes, and estimate stacked event studies comparing adopters and their incumbents with not-yet-adopting firms. Five years after adoption, employment is 19 percent lower and the wage bill 20 percent lower, while firm-level wages barely move; the contraction runs through hiring rather than dismissals. Incumbents’ reported earnings stay flat, but their formal attachment weakens—fewer months in registered wage employment, more exits from the registry, and more transitions into simplified self-employment. Automation costs here appear less as payroll wage cuts than as separations, reallocation, and movement out of registered wage employment.

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Emprendimiento | Evaluación de impacto | Finanzas | Impuestos | Investigación socioeconómica | PyMES

País / Región

Argentina

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https://scioteca.caf.com/handle/123456789/2712

Date

2026-09-17

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6.1 Documentos de trabajo en investigación socioeconómica

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Except where otherwised noted, this item's license is described as CC-BY-NC-ND
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Automation and the Margins of Firm and Worker Adjustment in Argentina.pdf (5.58 MB)

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