Just Energy Transition / Projection Assumptions

The project’s general objective is to develop a methodological approach to define the concept of a just energy transition (JET) in a national context, with potential application in CAF member countries. This report details the hypotheses, criteria, and methodology used to model the energy transition scenarios in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and the Dominican Republic, employing the LEAP model (Low Emissions Analysis Platform) developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute.
The study’s methodology adopts a bottom-up approach, starting with specific data disaggregated by sectors (residential, industrial, transportation, among others) and energy uses to project total demand. The projections consider key explanatory variables such as sectoral GDP and demographic trends. For instance, population growth drives residential demand, while GDP influences the expansion of productive sectors and transportation.
Regarding energy supply, the LEAP model enables the simulation of annual electricity generation dispatch and the analysis of various optimization methodologies. The report provides a detailed structure of the projections, including the investments required for each scenario. This methodological approach contributes to comprehensive energy planning tailored to the specific characteristics of each country, promoting the implementation of just and sustainable energy transitions in Latin America and the Caribbean.

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